Trade Disputes Exert Pressure on Tin Prices [Institutional Commentary]

Last Thursday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract experienced a pullback. During the Qingming holiday, the overseas market saw a significant decline. On the supply side, refined tin production in February was slightly down MoM due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Consumption improved from February to March as production resumed. Inventory-wise, social inventory increased WoW last week, which was generally unfavorable for futures prices. In terms of news, the US President signed two executive orders on so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trading partners. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that additional tariffs would be imposed on imports originating from the US starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025. Short-term macro sentiment disturbances have intensified. While the supply and demand fundamentals are favorable, the unexpected drag from macro trade disputes on demand expectations suggests a cautious approach to short-term trading, with a reference range of 265,000-293,000 yuan/mt. Later, focus will be on the implementation of macro measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, the pace of Indonesian exports, and the verification of consumption data.